As of mid-August 2026, the global nickel market has shifted into a mild downward trajectory after a short-lived rebound in late July. On the London Metal Exchange, three-month nickel futures are trading around USD 16,800 per tonne, roughly 2.9% below the early-August high of USD 17,305 per tonne. On a one-month basis, prices have dipped marginally by 0.12%, though they still hold a 10.6% year-on-year gain.
The sharpest single-day correction came on August 6, when prices dropped 2.45% to touch a seven-week low near USD 16,565 per tonne. Since then, the market has been consolidating in a narrow band between USD 16,600 and USD 17,000 per tonne, with limited upward momentum.
Domestically in China, SHFE nickel contracts have moved largely in line with global benchmarks. The most-active contract settled around RMB 127,000 per tonne by mid-August, down approximately 2.6% from the monthly peak. Spot electrolytic nickel prices have followed suit, fluctuating between RMB 129,000 and RMB 130,000 per tonne. Trading activity remains subdued overall, as downstream buyers mostly purchase only to cover immediate needs rather than building inventory.
The single biggest trigger for the recent pullback is a policy update from Indonesia, the world’s top nickel ore producer. Going into August, the market had widely priced in expectations of tighter 2026 RKAB mining quotas, which had been supporting both nickel ore and refined nickel prices. That bullish logic was disrupted when reports confirmed expanded mining allowances for major Indonesian concessions, with individual mine annual permits jumping from 12 million tonnes to 37 million tonnes.
While Indonesian authorities have stressed that total national mining output will remain capped and the extra quotas are targeted at smelters facing feedstock shortages, the news still reversed market sentiment abruptly. It shattered the prior consensus of a tight ore market and triggered a wave of profit-taking.
Adding to the loose supply picture, Philippine nickel ore shipments have continued to ramp up following the end of the rainy season. Domestically, refined nickel output stays at elevated levels, and inflows of nickel intermediate products and ferronickel from overseas keep inventory levels historically high. All these factors combine to cap any meaningful price rebound.
On the consumption front, the traditional summer lull has prevented demand from providing any meaningful support to prices. Stainless steel, the single largest end-user of nickel, is facing weak downstream offtake from the real estate, home appliance and general manufacturing sectors. High finished steel inventories and compressed profit margins have led steel mills to take a very cautious approach to raw material procurement, sticking to hand-to-mouth buying instead of bulk restocking.
In the new energy battery sector, demand for nickel sulfate continues to grow at a steady pace, but the growth rate has fallen short of earlier bullish projections. Without a strong surge in battery orders, this segment is not yet strong enough to offset the softness in stainless steel demand.
Cost support has also weakened recently. Earlier concerns over potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushing up sulfur prices have faded as geopolitical tensions ease. Lower sulfur costs directly reduce operating expenses for hydrometallurgical nickel producers, eroding the cost floor that had previously underpinned prices.
Meanwhile, fading expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts have kept the US dollar index firm. A stronger dollar tends to weigh on dollar-denominated commodities broadly, and nickel is no exception — the macro backdrop has added another layer of downward pressure across the base metals complex.
Looking ahead, the nickel market is set to remain caught between competing bullish and bearish forces, making a sharp one-sided move unlikely in the short run.
Bearish factors
- The long-term structural growth of Indonesian nickel production capacity remains intact, keeping the medium-term supply outlook comfortably loose.
- Seasonal demand weakness will persist through the rest of August, and downstream restocking enthusiasm is unlikely to pick up dramatically in the very near term.
Supportive factors
- The Indonesian quota adjustment is a targeted expansion, not a full liberalization of mining output. Actual supply growth will likely be more moderate than the initial panic-driven market reaction suggested.
- Current price levels are approaching the production cost line for a number of smelters. As cost support strengthens, there is limited room for prices to fall much further.
On balance, we expect nickel prices to continue trading within a relatively tight range over the next 4–6 weeks. The two key factors to monitor closely are: the final official details of Indonesia’s 2026 RKAB policy, and the strength of demand recovery as the market enters the traditional September–October peak manufacturing season.
For industrial buyers who use nickel-based alloys on a regular basis, here are three practical takeaways for your procurement planning:
- Stick to just-in-time procurement for now Given the lack of clear upward drivers in the current off-peak season, there is little urgency to build large raw material inventories. Purchasing on an as-needed basis helps avoid inventory devaluation risks and keeps your cash flow flexible.
- Plan selective restocking on price dips Keep a close eye on the two key catalysts mentioned above. If prices test the lower end of the range as we approach Q4, it can be a good window to top up inventory strategically and smooth out your annual average procurement cost.
- Lock in reliable long-term supply partnerships For manufacturers with steady, year-round nickel consumption — such as electric heating alloy producers and precision component makers — working with trusted long-term suppliers through framework agreements is an effective way to smooth out price volatility and secure consistent delivery.
At Huona, we maintain a well-structured raw material reserve system backed by long-term supply contracts and strategic stockpiling. This setup allows us to absorb short-term market fluctuations and keep pricing stable across our full nickel-based product portfolio — from pure nickel wire and nichrome alloys to copper-nickel alloys. Our customers can plan production with confidence, without being disrupted by sudden swings in raw material costs.
We offer a comprehensive lineup of electric heating alloys, including pure nickel, nichrome, constantan and FeCrAl, available in wire, strip and flat wire forms with diameters ranging from 0.015mm up to 6.0mm. Custom specifications and value-added processing are also available. No matter your industry — industrial heating, medical devices or precision electronics — we can support stable, bulk delivery on a consistent basis.
We keep our customers updated with clear, timely market information and product quotations. Our technical and sales teams work closely with each client to understand their usage patterns, delivery schedules and cost targets, then provide customized sourcing recommendations to help optimize material costs and secure supply chain resilience.
Nickel price movements are always the result of overlapping factors — supply capacity shifts, seasonal demand cycles, macroeconomic conditions and policy changes. In the current range-bound market, reacting emotionally to daily price swings is less effective than maintaining a disciplined, demand-aligned procurement rhythm.
As a specialized manufacturer of nickel-based electric heating alloys, Huona stays closely attuned to raw material market dynamics. We are committed to delivering consistent product quality, reliable supply and responsive service, so you can focus on running your operations smoothly. If you would like to discuss your pure nickel wire, nichrome alloy or other heating alloy requirements, or if you need updated pricing information, feel free to reach out to the Huona team.